Dual-Use Risk — Cyber, Bio, Chem, Nuclear Uplift
The 2026 dual-use picture, domain by domain. Bio/chem: Lesson 17 covers WMDP; Anthropic's bioweapon-acquisition trial (2.53x uplift) and OpenAI's April 2025 Preparedness Framework v2 warning ("on the cusp of meaningfully helping novices create known biological threats") mark the inflection point. Cyber (November 2025 Anthropic report): Chinese-linked state actors used Claude's agentic coding tool to automate up to 90% of a cyberattack campaign, with human intervention only in 4-6 steps; OpenAI "trusted access" pilot gives vetted security organisations capability access for defensive dual-use work. Chem/bio execution gap erosion: the classic defense was "information access alone is insufficient." Vision-enabled frontier models (GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Pro, Claude Opus 4.5, Grok 4.1) can observe wet-lab video and provide real-time correction. December 2025: OpenAI demonstrated GPT-5 iterating on wet-lab experiments, achieving 79x efficiency improvement via AI-driven protocol optimization. Novice-vs-expert pattern: AI provides greater relative uplift to novices but greater absolute capability to experts. Describe the 2024-2025 bio-uplift narrative: "mild uplift" -> "on the cusp" -> "2.53x uplift insufficient to rule out ASL-3.". Describe the November 2025 Anthropic cyber report: Chinese-linked automation at up to 90% of a cyberattack campaign. Describe the chem/bio execution-gap erosion: vision-enabled real-time correction of wet-lab experiments. State the novice-relative vs expert-absolute asymmetry and its implication for safety-case construction. Lesson 17 is the measurement methodology. Lesson 30 is the 2026 state of…
Dual-Use Risk — Cyber, Bio, Chem, Nuclear Uplift: The 2026 dual-use picture, domain by domain. Bio/chem: Lesson 17 covers WMDP; Anthropic's…
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